Ghost Ice
The almost fiery temperatures so far this winter have made for little ice, worry over climate change, and questions on moving forward in these uncharted and open waters.
Something is missing. Walking the January shoreline at Meyers Beach in the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, is like walking in a land of ghosts, an eerie experience, not for what is there but for what isn’t: we are missing the ice.
This far north, the New Year is usually ushered in with sparkling champagne, streamers, and the glitter of ice in cocktails and on the broad back of Lake Superior. This New Year’s Day, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), just 0.35% of the Great Lakes were festooned in ice for the holiday, the lowest figure in at least 50 years. Despite a short cold snap just after the first of the year, things haven’t improved much: 3.98% ice cover for Lake Superior according to the latest data.
Our winter ice has ghosted us.
December temperatures have been eerily spring-like in the islands. The average December temperature in Duluth was 12 degrees above normal, the warmest December ever recorded in a place where the records go back 139 Decembers to 1874.
It doesn’t take a meteorologist to figure out that warmer temperatures means less ice. The question becomes, is this an anomaly or a trend, a blip or the new normal?
Most research points towards a trend. In the last 50 years, researchers say, peak ice on the Great Lakes has been dropping like a falling star - more than 5% each decade or roughly 70% between 1973 and today. Fluctuations in ice coverage are not new, even wide variations locally have been noted. In December of 1881 the Bayfield Press pointedly jabbed it rivals down the bay saying “the Ashland Press states that the bay was closed by ice there on December 2nd. Well, here we haven’t even seen any ice on the bay yet.” The Ashland Press shot back, “And what a fix your town will be in next season - no ice for mint juleps and the boys so thirsty.”
One iceless season does not a mint julep crisis make. It is the trend, however, that is troubling. Ice cover on the Great Lakes has been below average in 16 of the last 25 years and last year’s 6.2% coverage marked the fourth-lowest since records began. Mint julep lovers take note.
“Some say the world will end in fire/ Some say in ice,” wrote Robert Frost. The almost fiery temperatures so far this winter have left us little ice and the flickering flames of worry, not just about summer refreshment but that our world is, undoubtedly changing, and fast.
No ice means a longer shipping season but less tourism revenue for shoreline communities relying on winter sports such as ice fishing and snowmobiling. Even beyond the pocketbook, removing the ice cover from Lake Superior is like taking the lid off of a pot. Without the ice, evaporation rates sky-rocket meaning potentially lower winter/spring lake levels. More moisture in the air means the potential for more lake effect snow which could lead to higher summer lake levels and potential spring floods. Ice, too, has a buffering effect on storm waves, in essence keeping the lid on them. Without that lid, high waves could mean increased shoreline erosion and flooding.
Wildlife, too, can be influenced by the lack of ice. Many fish species reproduce by laying eggs in the fall, eggs that are normally safely locked away by the ice until spring hatch. Mammals such as deer, coyotes, fox, even wolves, use the ice between the islands like seasonal bridges to reach new territory and establish new ranges. Open water would, essentially, close those transportation corridors. Lack of ice can mean more algae blooms in the summer because of higher water temperatures and can alter the amount of oxygen in the water, effects which can have widespread impacts on the ecosystem.
And then there is this:
In the northwoods the heart of winter is carved in ice. Ice is that peppermint sensation when you inhale on a -20f day. It is what makes your heart leap at the crackle beneath your boots. Ice is the frozen fireworks on the sandstone cliffs and caves. It is the boom and cracking of shove ice clattering on the shore.
Ice is the jewelry of winter. It is what gives the deep cold its sparkle and glimmer, as if time has stopped, frozen in place, capturing bits of winter’s beauty in the amber of ice. Without ice, winter loses its soul.
There is still time. Recent temperatures did dip below zero for a time but are on the rise again. Lake water temperatures are still higher than they should be. But, the lake may yet clatter with new ice. The world, or at least this winter, may still end “in ice” as the poet says.
But however cold the rest of the winter is, December’s oddly warm temperatures and ice-free days are in the books. Perhaps it was just an anomaly, one of those blips that old timers will talk about for years. Yet, it may have been something more, another step in an ominous trend. In that way that the sound of waves still breaking in open water this far into the winter take on a darker cadence.
Walking next to all that open water, I find myself thinking about boats - not about getting the Little Dipper out of winter storage, not real boats (although I must admit it has crossed my mind). No, I am thinking about metaphorical boats, the kind that author Barry Lopez referenced in a poignant passage in his final book Embrace Fearlessly the Burning World. Discussing the mental, spiritual, and physical challenge of moving forward in the wake of coming climate change, Lopez wrote:
“Once, we banked on knowing how to respond to all the important questions … To survive what is headed our way … to endure, we will have to stretch our imaginations. We will need to trust each other, because today it’s as if every safe place has melted into the sameness of water. We are searching for the boats we forgot to build.”
Perhaps, I think to myself gazing out over the open lake in January, we should all start building those “boats.”
— Jeff Rennicke
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